A mere 60 days ago that the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his displays were an indicator or the source of Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. When the England international drilled in his second strike to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough proposition to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, while the wins have accumulated.
According to the data, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side which has put together ten consecutive victories, they appear weirdly vulnerable – but right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened against the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
A statistical correction might be the greatest opponent they must confront in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
