A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
